Sofia Priazhkina

The Impact of Potential Retail Central Bank Digital Currency on the Canadian Financial System During a Severe Recession (2026, Bank of Canada Publication)

This paper examines how a non-interest-bearing retail CBDC could affect Canada’s systemically important banks during a severe recession. The stress-test results indicate that banks remain resilient even under high CBDC demand, although they respond to deposit outflows by moderating balance-sheet growth and using alternative funding. The paper also evaluates policy measures that could mitigate financial-stability risks during a CBDC rollout.

Digital Payments in Network Formation Games: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithms (2026, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control)

This paper develops a network-formation model to study firms’ adoption and use of digital payment methods as alternatives to correspondent banking. It shows how strategic interactions can produce heterogeneous and inefficient adoption outcomes, including situations in which greater usage accompanies lower adoption. The network game is formulated as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem and solved using quantum-computing methods.

Market Structure of Cryptoasset Exchanges: Introduction, Challenges and Emerging Trends (2024, Bank of Canada Publication)

This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges and compares their structure with that of traditional financial-market exchanges. It examines market fragmentation, custody, transparency, conflicts of interest and other challenges specific to cryptoasset trading. It also discusses emerging regulatory approaches and technological innovations intended to address these risks.

Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning (2023, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control)

This paper investigates whether quantum Monte Carlo methods can reduce computational bottlenecks in economic modelling. Applications include estimating banking-system losses under credit shocks and fire sales and solving a macroeconomic model using deep learning. The study benchmarks quantum and classical approaches and discusses both the potential advantages and practical limitations of quantum computing in economics.

Regulatory Requirements of Banks and Arbitrage in the Post-Crisis Federal Funds Market (Bank of Canada Working Paper)

This paper develops a model of the US federal funds market that incorporates abundant reserves, differences in banks’ regulatory treatment and limited access to interest-bearing reserve facilities. The model explains why the federal funds rate can fall below the interest rate paid on reserves—the “leaky floor” phenomenon. It also evaluates how government yields and changes to liquidity and leverage requirements affect equilibrium rates.

Stressed but Not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions (2021, Bank of Canada Publication)

This paper introduces a stress-testing framework in which banks strategically adjust their balance sheets in response to financial stress and competitors’ actions. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, it finds that banks can preserve regulatory compliance by reducing lending, potentially amplifying the effects of a downturn on households and businesses. The results illustrate a trade-off between the stability of individual banks and broader macroeconomic stability.

Modelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada (2018, Bank of Canada Publication)

This study uses an integrated set of risk-assessment models to examine the effects of a severe house-price correction centred in Toronto and Vancouver. The scenario combines declining property values, household and business credit losses, and broader financial stress. The analysis finds that Canada’s major banks remain resilient, although adverse feedback between the financial system and the economy can materially intensify the downturn.

Sharing Market Access in Buyer–Seller Networks (2018, Journal of Economic Theory)

This paper develops a network-formation game in which sellers exchange access to buyers for negotiated payments before bargaining takes place. With homogeneous participants, market sharing increases trade volume and may benefit buyers when sellers possess greater bargaining power. With heterogeneous participants, however, sharing can reduce trade and redistribute market surplus in ways that depend on bargaining power and market composition.